By Adenike Lawal
Nigeria’s economic outlook just dimmed. The International Monetary Fund has lowered its 2025 growth projection for Africa’s largest economy to 3 percent, trimming it from an earlier forecast of 3.4 percent.
The revision, announced Tuesday at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, is attributed to falling oil production and deepening global trade tensions.
The latest World Economic Outlook reveals growing concern over Nigeria’s fiscal vulnerability, as oil exports weaken and global demand softens.
The IMF warns that these pressures are squeezing government revenue and complicating planning in an already strained economy.
“Exporters are set to see weakening oil supply and declining revenues, which will affect fiscal space,” the report stated, placing Nigeria among resource-heavy economies facing the brunt of global shocks.
Adding fuel to the fire is a resurgence of trade protectionism. The United States has rolled out sweeping tariffs, triggering a ripple of retaliations and pushing global tariffs to levels not seen in nearly a century.
This, according to IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, signals a reset of the global economic order.
“This is a new era,” Gourinchas declared. “We are navigating through unprecedented uncertainty.”
The downgrade is part of a wider trend. Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by just 3.7 percent in 2025, rising slightly to 3.9 percent in 2026.
Sub-Saharan Africa will remain sluggish, slowed by inflation, global fragmentation, and persistent geopolitical risks.
Meanwhile, global inflation remains stubborn. The IMF projects an average rate of 4.3 percent in 2025, cooling to 3.6 percent in 2026.
Developed nations like the U.S. are seeing inflationary spikes due to new tariffs, while emerging economies may see milder pressure.
With the global outlook shifting rapidly, central banks face tough decisions.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance as it balances inflation control with economic support.
In its final word, the IMF warned that the year’s economic surprises are far from over.
“The unfolding of these trade measures is a significant negative shock to global growth,” the report said, underscoring the volatility shaping the future.