By Emmanuel Ogbodo
The Federal Government’s ambitious broadband targets for 2025 appear increasingly unattainable, as challenges such as declining private investment, aggressive revenue demands from states, the failed Infrastructure Project (InfraCo), and an unfriendly business environment continue to swell the ranks of Nigeria’s digitally-excluded population, now totaling 136 million.
Data from Nigeria’s telecommunications sector reveals a growing digital divide, particularly between the southern and northern regions. Approximately 44.6% of Nigerians, predominantly in the North, either lack basic telephony service or are inadequately served. Of the country’s estimated 220 million population, only 38% have internet access, leaving about 136 million people with limited digital connectivity.
While Nigeria’s telephone density was estimated at 101.2% in Q1, a survey by operators indicated that 61% of rural inhabitants, mainly in the North, are unconnected. Last year, Nigeria ranked 88th out of 117 countries in the Digital Quality of Life Index, which measures internet affordability, quality, e-infrastructure, e-security, and e-government. Although the country improved slightly from the previous year, significant gaps in connectivity remain, particularly in the North.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) further underscores these disparities. While the South had 113.8 million telephone users, the North had 104.5 million, a gap that may have widened due to the slow progress of the National Broadband Plan (2020-2025). Moreover, telecom infrastructure destroyed by Boko Haram in northern states remains unrestored, further hindering penetration.
The ongoing digital divide is exemplified by the recent looting of the newly built Digital Park by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) in Kano during the #EndBadGovernance protest. These setbacks threaten the 2025 goal of 70% broadband penetration, a target that remains elusive, with Nigeria currently 27% short of this mark.
The InfraCo project, designed to wire all 774 local government areas with wholesale broadband facilities, has not materialised, contributing to the failure to meet earlier broadband targets. The Federal Government has initiated a new Project 774 LG Connectivity to expand fibre optic coverage, but it faces challenges, especially as countries worldwide move away from older networks like 2G and 3G.
NCC statistics indicate that 2G still has a 56.97% penetration, primarily in rural areas, limiting digital activities. 3G coverage stands at 9.04%, while 4G, at 32.74%, is mostly confined to urban areas. Two years after its launch, 5G has only achieved a 1.24% penetration, with investment shortfalls hampering further rollout.
The National Broadband Plan aimed for 80% coverage of unserved clusters by 2022, but this remains unfulfilled, with metro fibre networks concentrated in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt. Access to fibre networks is currently about 39% nationwide, with Lagos at 85% and Jigawa State at a mere 12%.
By 2023, the plan also envisioned 70% of tertiary institutions, 30% of secondary schools, and 15% of primary schools connected through fibre, goals that were not met. Similarly, the target to connect 80% of general hospitals per LGA and federal medical centres was not achieved, with most progress attributed to private efforts.
The cost of smartphones remains a barrier to broader internet access. The plan included establishing a local smartphone assembly plant by 2023 to reduce prices, but this too has failed, with entry-level smartphones currently priced above N30,000, far from the target of N18,000.
The AfriOne smartphone factory, launched in 2017, faced significant challenges, including inadequate power supply and consumer preference for foreign brands, which have stymied local production efforts.
A member of the National Broadband Plan Committee, speaking anonymously, cited lack of political will and low funding as major obstacles to the plan’s implementation, estimating it at only 40% complete. Despite these setbacks, some milestones, particularly in Internet Exchange Points, have been partially achieved.
In terms of data pricing, there has been some progress, with 1GB of data available for as low as N350, although the plan set a target of N700 by 2023. However, the issue of access gaps remains a significant concern, as highlighted at the Policy Implementation Assisted Forum (PIAFo) organised by BusinessMetrics.
Chidi Ibisi, Executive Director of Broadbased Communications, lamented the failure to meet many broadband targets, which has exacerbated the digital divide. He stressed that Nigeria must still connect 95% of LGAs by fibre, among other ambitious goals, if it is to bridge this gap.