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IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s Economic Growth Forecast To 3.1%

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The International Monetary Fund yesterday downgraded its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2024 to 3.1 per cent citing weaker growth recorded in the first quarter of the year, Q1’24.

The new forecast was contained in the July 2024 World Economic Outlook of the IMF released, yesterday.

The downgrade represents 0.2 percentage points below the earlier forecast of 3.3 per cent.
The downgrade followed weaker-than-expected Gross Domestic Product, GDP, and growth recorded by the country in Q1’23.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, showed that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth dropped, quarter-on-quarter, QoQ to 2.98 per cent in Q1’24 from 3.46 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, Q3’23,

The IMF however retained its 3.0 per cent forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025.

As a result of the lower forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth, the IMF also downgraded its forecast for Sub-Saharan economic growth in 2024 to 3.7 per cent from the April WEO forecast of 3.8 per cent. It however raised its economic growth forecast for the region in 2025 to 4.1 per cent from 4.0.

“The forecast for growth in sub-Saharan Africa is revised downward, mainly as a result of a 0.2 percentage point downward revision to the growth outlook in Nigeria amid weaker than expected activity in the first quarter of this year,” the IMF said.

For the global economy, the IMF retained its growth forecasts of 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 3.3 per cent in 2025.

The IMF said: “The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 3.3 per cent in 2025.

“However, varied momentum in activity at the turn of the year has somewhat narrowed the output divergence across economies as cyclical factors wane and activity becomes better aligned with its potential.

“Services price inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization. Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty.

“To manage these risks and preserve growth, the policy mix should be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.”

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Telecom Operators Reject NLC’s Demand for Tariff Reduction, Justify 50% Hike

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By Emmanuel Ogbodo

Nigeria’s Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) have rejected calls from the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) to negotiate a reduction in the recent 50% tariff increase, insisting the hike is necessary for the industry’s sustainability amid rising operational costs.

The NLC, opposing the adjustment, has demanded a rollback to 5% and threatened a nationwide protest on Tuesday, February 4, if its demands are not met.

The union described the increase as “insensitive and unjustifiable,” warning it would further strain Nigerian consumers.

At a weekend forum in Lagos, representatives from the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) and major telecom firms, including MTN Nigeria, Airtel Nigeria, and 9mobile, defended the hike.

ALTON Chairman Gbenga Adebayo likened the increase to a “lifeline” for the industry, arguing that anything lower would cripple operations.

MTN Nigeria’s Chief Corporate Services & Sustainability Officer, Tobechukwu Okigbo, clarified that operators do not engage directly with the NLC, as ALTON manages industry-wide negotiations.

Airtel Nigeria’s Director of Corporate Communications and CSR, Femi Adeniran, added that discussions with labour unions fall under the purview of government agencies and ALTON.

The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), which approved the tariff adjustment on January 20, 2025, defended the move, citing inflation, foreign exchange volatility, and rising energy costs.

The commission emphasized that the decision aligns with its mandate under the Nigerian Communications Act, 2003, to ensure telecom sector viability.

Despite these justifications, the NLC remains firm in its opposition. Union President Joe Ajaero reiterated the demand for a significant reduction, warning of nationwide protests if the hike is not reversed.

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Dangote Refinery Reduces Petrol Price to N890 Per Litre

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By Alexis Uchendu

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced a reduction in the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, from N950 to N890 per litre, effective February 1, 2025.

The company attributed the price adjustment to a favorable shift in global energy markets and a decline in international crude oil prices.

This follows a previous price hike on January 19, driven by rising crude costs.

Dangote Refinery expressed optimism that the price cut will lower fuel costs nationwide, ease the cost of living, and positively impact key economic sectors.

The company also urged fuel marketers to reflect the reduction at retail stations, ensuring consumers benefit from the adjustment as part of broader economic recovery efforts led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Reaffirming its commitment to Nigeria’s self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products, the refinery pledged to strengthen the country’s position as a leading oil export hub in Africa.

 

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Naira Gains Against Dollar Amid CBN Reforms

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By Adenike Lawal

The Naira appreciated by 0.78% at the official market on Wednesday, trading at N1,510.72 per dollar, an N11.96 gain from the previous day’s rate of N1,522.68, according to FMDQ Securities Exchange data.

Since December 2024, the Naira has remained relatively stable, largely due to ongoing reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

On Tuesday, the apex bank introduced additional measures, including a waiver on the 2025 annual license renewal fee for Bureau De Change (BDC), operators and the launch of the Nigeria Foreign Exchange (FX), Code to enhance transparency in forex transactions.

Dr. Aminu Gwadabe, President of the Association of Bureau De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), praised the CBN’s initiatives, urging continued support for policies that strengthen the local currency.

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