The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected a decrease in the country’s earnings from oil exports in 2024. The Governor of the CBN, Cardoso, attributed this anticipated decline to the set oil production limit of 1.78 million barrels per day outlined in the 2024 budget assumption.
Speaking during an interactive session with the National Assembly joint committee on Banking, Insurance, and other Financial Institutions in Abuja, Cardoso explained that although the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) approved a quota of 1.8 million barrels per day for Nigeria, the actual production has consistently fallen below this threshold.
Cardoso informed lawmakers that the country’s highest production level in the third quarter of 2023 was approximately 1.35 million barrels per day, citing factors such as crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, production shut-ins, and divestment by major oil companies for the underperformance.
Despite the challenges in the oil sector, Cardoso expressed optimism about the domestic economy’s outlook for 2024. He highlighted positive trends in both inflation and exchange rates, projecting resilience against fluctuating pressures.
“The outlook for the domestic economy remains positive and is expected to maintain a positive trajectory for 2024,” Cardoso stated. He acknowledged short-term inflation pressures but expected a decline in 2024. Additionally, he foresaw a significant reduction in exchange rate pressures with the smooth functioning of the foreign exchange market.
Cardoso emphasized the positive impact of the unification of exchange rate windows in June 2023, aiming to minimize arbitrage, rent-seeking behavior, and speculation in the market. He noted that the policy aims to create a foreign exchange market where demand and supply determine the exchange rate, contributing to increased stability and a narrowing premium.
Providing trade statistics, Cardoso revealed that total trade in the third quarter of 2023 amounted to N18.804.68 billion, with exports valued at N10.346.60 billion and total imports at N8.457.68 billion.